[5NL] AJo on button, 2P on paired flop.

Villain is 13/9 through 58 hands.

Had a note on villain that he slow played made hands. He had raises with KJs UTG, cbet 2/3 pot on paired flop with FD before calling a raise. Made his flush on T, checked it. Board tripped up on R, checked it again.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $3.19
UTG: $9.03
MP: $5.14
CO: $5.00
Hero (BTN): $7.24
SB: $5.69

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A J

fold, MP raises to $0.15, fold, Hero calls $0.15, fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47, 3 players) J 7 7
BB bets $0.05, MP calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, MP calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.72, 2 players) 4
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.72, 2 players) Q
MP bets $0.85, Hero ???

I'm not sure whether decision to raise flop is more relevant but thought I would post majority of hand.

Flop - OK, he just calls a min bet, why would he do this? I don't think he would do it with a J, unless it was a weak one. I highly doubt he would do it with a 7, surely would raise for value. Would a 13/9 raise pre in MP with a 7? A7s would surely be the only hand and that's a push I think. I think what makes the most sense is maybe an underpair, 88-TT? He then calls a raise, now I am not so sure what villain is holding.

Turn - He checks. I decide to check behind, bad decision? He could still be holding a 7 or an underpair.

River - 1/2 PSB on R. Value bet from a 7? Not sure if his underpair is good? I don't think I can fold here can I?

Thoughts?

Villain could've called w/ 2 overs, and spiked a Q. Villain could have QQ+ and got scared of the paired flop. Villain probably doesn't bet river with TT-, except for sets. QJ certainly makes sense.

So does KJ, JT, J9s maybe.

My gut says it's a fold, but the check check OTT under repped your AJ, sooo... is Villain the kind to fire OTR with less than TPTK????

My gut still says fold.

very likely a JT/QJ/KJ type hand here, 88-TT as well

I'd bet ~$1.15 on turn and jam river, probably bet/folding turn against this guy, he's just not going crazy on this board with a hand that AJ beats.

Turn ez bet. if he had AJ beat he woulda raised the flop himself.

yah i like a turn bet due to capped range etc as dozer said. river is somewhat close i think. because i expect villains at these stakes to absolutely suck at value-betting, i don't know how many nitty 5nl regs would attempt to value bet KJ or JT here.

actually that hand where he failed to vbet his flush makes me want to put him on QJ alone and fold. or some god-awfully butchered "slow-played" 7x

+1 to turn bet about $1 for value vs his worse J's and underpairs.

Gotta fold if raised though, I guess.

River bet is probably a fold as he has Q's in his range and maybe even some horribly played A7s but:
- does he never ever do that with a worse J or even TT? meh
- half pot sizing does not exactly represent a strong vbet

Again, if you called, worth making a note of what he had.

QJ is the only Q i can see being in his range on the river. i also think he will have 100% of the (lol) 1 combination of JJ here, given our read he likes to slowplay monsters and that most people don't raise JJ on this flop because they feel they have the deck crippled.

Thinking again, I really don't see why he would not bet his Jx hands otf?

Vs a 13/9 I prolly muck this pre

Originally Posted by kickass

Vs a 13/9 I prolly muck this pre

+1 actually. didn't really even consider hero's preflop play

Originally Posted by rpm

+1 actually. didn't really even consider hero's preflop play

He had raised KJs UTG though. I don't think KJs falls under a tight UTG opening range does it?

I think calling is fine here you have position and have seen him open KJs utg, from this information we can assume our hand is a decent hand to call with IP, for the reasons that we will have some of his Jx dominated and Ax as well if he's opening AT i think folding this hand IP based on a stat generated from a 58 hand sample is bad, especially when we've seen him open wider than most from the utg position.

I don't know how to make monies playing this hand vs that tight a range, it looks like you don't either
I doubt very much that villain has any 7s in his range apart from 77 and there is only 1 combo of QJs. I think villain also has some JJ+.saying that I don't know what we beat that bets river. It isn't likely he turns 88-TT into a bluff. I'd bet turn and fold the river now he's bet. Bleh

Originally Posted by kickass

I don't know how to make monies playing this hand vs that tight a range, it looks like you don't either
I doubt very much that villain has any 7s in his range apart from 77 and there is only 1 combo of QJs. I think villain also has some JJ+.saying that I don't know what we beat that bets river. It isn't likely he turns 88-TT into a bluff. I'd bet turn and fold the river now he's bet. Bleh

I don't know why you're so convinced villain is playing a super tight range based on a 58 hand sample, when we have seen him open KJs utg which i wouldn't include in a standard TAG's utg range.

If villain did happen to be a super nit based on a larger sample we could easily add this hand to our 3bet bluffing range as it has two good blockers and good blockers become more important when you're 3bet bluffing a tight range.

Probably a desperation bluff w/ T9s if he somehow has it or 88-AA.

edit: KJs is also a super standard open for most "TAggy" people. Absurd to think they would be folding that UTG.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Turn - He checks. I decide to check behind, bad decision? He could still be holding a 7 or an underpair.

How can he have a 7?

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

edit: KJs is also a super standard open for most "TAggy" people. Absurd to think they would be folding that UTG.

Our interpretation of the term 'taggy' must be at odds.

A six-max 13/9 opening KJs from the HJ doesn't seem outrageous or unreasonable, but I would consider discounting it to some degree.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

How can he have a 7?

How can we rule it out? He just calls the min bet on flop and then calls a raise. He checks on T to let me fire again. Then bets the R when I don't? You don't think A7s is a possibility?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

How can we rule it out? He just calls the min bet on flop and then calls a raise. He checks on T to let me fire again. Then bets the R when I don't? You don't think A7s is a possibility?

There is only 2combinations of this even if it was possibility. We can discount some of this though and discount some more w/o the flop raise.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

There is only 2combinations of this even if it was possibility. We can discount some of this though and discount some more w/o the flop raise.

I'm sorry if this seems lazy, as I'm not exactly sure what to look for.

Would you please link to something which explains counting combinations and using these to make decisions (as you have said lots in previous posts) as it's something that I'd like to have a proper look at.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

There is only 2combinations of this even if it was possibility. We can discount some of this though and discount some more w/o the flop raise.

Hmm, OK I never take that into account, always forget. Still, as unlikely as it is, villain could be slow playing a 7 it's not like it's a super wet board so I don't think we should rule it out completely.

I thought there was a thread on the topic I can't find it at the moment you can look for it yourself.

A quick rundown on counting combos.

There are 6 combos of each pair since you have 4 cards to choose from. 4c2(Read 4 choose 2). AB AC AD BC BD and CD. AB=BA since order doesn't matter so AsAh is equivalent to AhAs.

There are 16 combos of every other hand with 4 of those being suited. We have 4 cards to choose from then 4 again so 4*4 gives us 16 combos or 4c1*4c1.
Note: 4 of these are suited.

There are 52c2=1326 combinations of hand

Now once we see the flop both our range and opponents range becomes more limited. If villains range is AA and 22 he has 12 combos of hands. Once the flop comes A44 he only has (3c2)3 combos of AA and 6 combos of 22 now. If the flop came AA4 he would only have (2c2)1 combo of AA.

For non pair hands we can simply multiply as follows. If our villain has AK and the flop is Axx he now only has 12 combos(3*4) of AK. AKx flop he has 9combos(3*3). AAK flop he only has 6 combos(2*3). If we have AK and the flop is AAK our villain only has 2 combos(1*2).

If you need more explaining I can make a better, less rushed post. This should be enough to get you started on thinking about counting hand combinations though.

Note: 52c2 means 52 choose 2 which is basically 52*51 / 2*1.
It's really (n)! / k!(n-k)! where n is 52, k is 2.

@ above, thanks a lot. I would have looked myself but I just didn't really know what to search for.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Hmm, OK I never take that into account, always forget. Still, as unlikely as it is, villain could be slow playing a 7 it's not like it's a super wet board so I don't think we should rule it out completely.

I do agree with what you are saying as it could happen, however instead of saying things like this you should look to find what he is talking about and do some studying to see how it actually impacts on the game.

At this level it may be pretty minor as people do loads of weird shit with stuff, however at higher levels where people are actually playing ranges against ranges then it's good to know the chances of what people could have and how this effects your decision making.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

@ above, thanks a lot. I would have looked myself but I just didn't really know what to search for.



I do agree with what you are saying as it could happen, however instead of saying things like this you should look to find what he is talking about and do some studying to see how it actually impacts on the game.

At this level it may be pretty minor as people do loads of weird shit with stuff, however at higher levels where people are actually playing ranges against ranges then it's good to know the chances of what people could have and how this effects your decision making.

Counting combos is super important no matter what stakes you are playing. If you are on the river you can easily estimate your equity since you are either winning/losing or chopping but that's a little more complicated. Just count the number of combos you are ahead and the number of combos you are behind.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I thought there was a thread on the topic I can't find it at the moment you can look for it yourself.

A quick rundown on counting combos.

There are 6 combos of each pair since you have 4 cards to choose from. 4c2(Read 4 choose 2). AB AC AD BC BD and CD. AB=BA since order doesn't matter so AsAh is equivalent to AhAs.

There are 16 combos of every other hand with 4 of those being suited. We have 4 cards to choose from then 4 again so 4*4 gives us 16 combos or 4c1*4c1.
Note: 4 of these are suited.

There are 52c2=1326 combinations of hand

Now once we see the flop both our range and opponents range becomes more limited. If villains range is AA and 22 he has 12 combos of hands. Once the flop comes A44 he only has (3c2)3 combos of AA and 6 combos of 22 now. If the flop came AA4 he would only have (2c2)1 combo of AA.

For non pair hands we can simply multiply as follows. If our villain has AK and the flop is Axx he now only has 12 combos(3*4) of AK. AKx flop he has 9combos(3*3). AAK flop he only has 6 combos(2*3). If we have AK and the flop is AAK our villain only has 2 combos(1*2).

If you need more explaining I can make a better, less rushed post. This should be enough to get you started on thinking about counting hand combinations though.

Note: 52c2 means 52 choose 2 which is basically 52*51 / 2*1.
It's really (n)! / k!(n-k)! where n is 52, k is 2.

Never realized how important this could be. It seems difficult to do whilst you're in the middle of a hand though.

I will definitely start trying to use combo's in my future HH posts and will try to do them during hands, provided it isn't taking me too long to do.


Seems like such a valuable skill, I can't believe I have overlooked it this long.

Like anything it's just practice to get quick at it.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I thought there was a thread on the topic I can't find it at the moment you can look for it yourself.

A quick rundown on counting combos.

There are 6 combos of each pair since you have 4 cards to choose from. 4c2(Read 4 choose 2). AB AC AD BC BD and CD. AB=BA since order doesn't matter so AsAh is equivalent to AhAs.

There are 16 combos of every other hand with 4 of those being suited. We have 4 cards to choose from then 4 again so 4*4 gives us 16 combos or 4c1*4c1.
Note: 4 of these are suited.

There are 52c2=1326 combinations of hand

Now once we see the flop both our range and opponents range becomes more limited. If villains range is AA and 22 he has 12 combos of hands. Once the flop comes A44 he only has (3c2)3 combos of AA and 6 combos of 22 now. If the flop came AA4 he would only have (2c2)1 combo of AA.

For non pair hands we can simply multiply as follows. If our villain has AK and the flop is Axx he now only has 12 combos(3*4) of AK. AKx flop he has 9combos(3*3). AAK flop he only has 6 combos(2*3). If we have AK and the flop is AAK our villain only has 2 combos(1*2).

If you need more explaining I can make a better, less rushed post. This should be enough to get you started on thinking about counting hand combinations though.

Note: 52c2 means 52 choose 2 which is basically 52*51 / 2*1.
It's really (n)! / k!(n-k)! where n is 52, k is 2.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...tc-161721.html

You legend, when I win my first WSOP Bracelet both of you are getting shoutouts.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

He had raised KJs UTG though. I don't think KJs falls under a tight UTG opening range does it?

we're still too disadvantaged in the equity/postflop flop playability departments i think to profitably call AJo here. we will almost never flop draws so we rely on our hands' high-card strength for it's playability. problem is, most of the times we both flop a pair villain will have us out-kicked.

fwiw, i'd probablly prefer to flat KJs than AJo in hero's shoes. KJs has more postflop playability which is important when we are against a strongish range and don't have the initiative.

edit: and remember our range is already weaker than villain's because he still has all of QQ+,AK, whereas we do not

someone said ^^ up there (or i imagined) that villain was UTG. he's actually in the HJ. this means two things. 1 - calling AJ isn't as bad as i thought, but probably still borderline for a beginner. 2 - even the biggest nits about are probably opening KJs in villain's shoes.

Originally Posted by rpm

someone said ^^ up there (or i imagined) that villain was UTG. he's actually in the HJ. this means two things. 1 - calling AJ isn't as bad as i thought, but probably still borderline for a beginner. 2 - even the biggest nits about are probably opening KJs in villain's shoes.

Yeah when I was talking about villain being UTG I was talking about a previous hand where I had seen him open with KJs.

For this hand, villain is not UTG.